Nate Silver Predicts A Close 2016 Presidential Election Outcome

He’s rather less cocksure about things than he was a few years ago when he published a book, The Signal and The Noise, claiming that advances in opinion poll technology (the signal) means we can ignore the musings of pundits (the noise). The pollsters’ subsequent failure in last year’s UK general election, and the EU referendum, underlines a more useful point: there’s no such thing as political science. In recent years we have had to suffer all kind of snake oil salesmen claiming to have done a Newton on politics, producing algorithms…

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