Britain’s shock vote to leave the European Union is throwing up winners and losers. Here is a guide:
Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson. The two highest-profile members of the Leave campaign have emerged triumphant. Farage, a strong campaigner against immigration who failed even to win election as an MP in last year’s general election has seen his lifelong ambition for Britain to exit the European Union fulfilled. Johnson, who gambled his political career on joining the Brexit camp, has pulled off a spectacular coup and is now the frontrunner to be the next leader of the Conservative Party.
Europe’s populists and nationalists. Marine Le Pen in France is already celebrating, as is the Austrian far-right. The Brexit vote has given a huge boost to all the populist movements across the continent who oppose the EU, whether from left or right.
Paris and Frankfurt financial centers. Both continental cities are likely to benefit in the medium to long-term from a shift in euro trading from London. Paris’s mayor has already promised a red-carpet welcome for banks shifting business from London. Ireland and the Netherlands are also likely to see banking jobs moving their way, although the broader Irish economy may suffer from the re-establishment of a land border with the U.K.
Gold and the yen. The two current favorite safe haven investments have already surged on the Brexit vote. They are likely to stay strong if market turmoil persists.
China. Beijing will take careful note of the U.K.’s greater need to seek foreign investors; it is also well-placed to make strategic deals with individual countries in a weakened Europe.
Donald Trump. The presumptive Republican presidential nominee was one of the very few globally significant politicians to back Brexit. His populist cause will receive a boost.
Vladimir Putin. The Russian leader is likely to profit from deepening divisions in Europe. Moscow has long played a game of divide and rule in Europe, playing off more pro-Russian member states against anti-Russian ones. It may well become harder to maintain a united EU front on sanctions against the Kremlin.
David Cameron. The British prime minister staked everything on a referendum he thought he could win easily — and lost. He wasted little time in announcing his resignation, which will take effect by October.
The European Union. This is the biggest challenge ever to the European project, born from the ashes of World War Two. Brussels must act quickly to seize the initiative, restore unity and damp down the rising nationalism tide across the continent. Above all, it must win back popular legitimacy by showing the value of the European project to ordinary voters.
Mainstream British political parties. Every one of Britain’s main political parties backed Remain and all of them lost.
Advocates of closer ASEAN integration. Those who were arguing for ASEAN to go beyond a free-trade area and develop closer economic integration along EU lines will find their arguments harder to make.
The pound sterling. The pound has already suffered its worst one-day plunge ever on the referendum result, diving nearly 10%. Financial analysts believe it will suffer a permanent devaluation of around 15-20% from its levels at the beginning of the campaign in January.
The British economy. Most economists have predicted that the U.K. will take a big hit from Brexit, with growth reduced as companies postpone investments
London real estate. The capital’s residential property market has surged over the past decades on strong demand from overseas buyers, many of them European nationals working or studying in London. Values are likely to be hit hard by Brexit.
Central and eastern Europe. These countries benefited from high migration to the U.K., with hundreds of thousands of their nationals studying and finding work in Britain. They also saw the U.K. as a key ally in their desire to keep the EU on a free-trade, economically liberal path.